Temporary slowing down of storm development
Wednesday 18th October 2017
Disturbance Fifty One had a shot at developing overnight but has since weakened and has now been absorbed by a frontal system to the northeast of Bermuda. As a matter of interest, had this reached tropical storm strength, it would have been short-lived, becoming the first Atlantic/Caribbean named storm since FRANKLIN in August not to have developed into a hurricane, a sequence of ten thus far unbroken.
Disturbance Fifty Three has been identified near the Lesser Antilles, moving west at 12 knots. This disturbance is not expected to develop as it moves across the Caribbean dueto unfavourable environmental conditions but will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Windward Islands, Trinidad, and Tobago today into Thursday.
Despite the apparent slowing down of system development now, modellers are a long way from the end of the season. Cooling water in the Pacific is starting to kill off upper level wind shear in the Caribbean and at least two theoretical systems - one mirroring NATE and another forming in the central Caribbean in the last week of October are being kicked around amongst the chatterers. The 2017 season is far from over.