Long-awaited low pressure system developing north of Panama

Monday 23rd October 2017

From west to east

Disturbance Fifty Three has defied the odds and is still hanging on over the southern Yucatan peninsula by the skin of its teeth but is expected to merge with a frontal boundary in the next few hours. Game over.

The long-awaited theoretical low has now formed for real in the south-western Caribbean around 300 miles north of the Panama canal as a broad area of low pressure with some scrappy squalls. This is currently stationary and expected to drift slowly north over the next couple of days. Environmental conditions are expected to be favourable for development this week which will at first bring heavy rainfall to Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, whilst the inevitable cyclone takes shape. The smart money is still on a move towards Cuba and the Bahamas but it should remain east of Florida. Do remember that hurricanes SANDY in 2012, PALOMA in 2008 and WILMA in 2005 started here late in their respective seasons.

Disturbance Fifty Six has formed around 400 miles north of the Amazon and is moving west at 12 knots. Whilst this may bring enhanced rainfall to the Windward Islands, strong wind shear should prevent any tropical development from occurring.

Stand easy.