Subtropical storm ALBERTO
Friday 25th May 2018
Disturbance Two is now over the far western extremity of Cuba and has accelerated a little but is still slow enough at 7 knots to be a rainmaker as it develops. This system is headed north-nor'east, still on track to make a landfall around the Alabama Mississippi border on Monday.
The variable here is intensity. There are one or two of the more sanguine observers drooling over talk of a hurricane but the general consensus would seem to be for a weak tropical storm developing. There is still a healthy dose of strong upper level shear which should limit development. This will however displace the worst of the rain to the east which will mean a downpour for the western side of the Florida peninsula along the entire Gulf coast as far west as the mouth of the Mississippi. One agency has picked up on a ship observation report which recorded storm force gusts and has already designated this Subtropical storm ALBERTO.
This has been given a hurricane severity rating of nil at present but a forecast maximum of 5 out of a possible 50 points based on 2 out of 15 for size and 3 out of 25 for intensity with an expected maximum tropical storm wind radius of 110 miles. This doesn't of course limit the extent of rain squalls to 110 miles in radius, just a limit of storm force winds of course.
Stand by for heavy rain and potential storm development over the weekend.
Otherwise, stand easy.