ALBERTO headed for Mississippi

Saturday 26th May 2018

Tropical depression Two, or subtropical storm ALBERTO if you prefer is still edging past the extreme west of Cuba, but picking up speed now and making around 10 knots over the ground. The predicted track has changed slightly with a north westerly course until tomorrow evening before altering course to port to head for a landfall over the mouth of the Mississippi on Monday evening. In doing so, this will cross the Viosca Knoll with 60 knot winds- poor reward for the hospitality the guys on VK900 platform showed me this week. Sorry.

Better news, I hope, is that this system is not showing much in the way of promising development with a current HSI rating of just 2 out of a possible 50 points (1 for size and 1 for intensity) and an expected maximum of 5 (2 size, 3 intensity) with a storm force wind radius of 115 miles. Upper level shear still holds all the cards which will hopefully limit development on Sunday evening to a weak tropical storm at best with the worst of the muck and rain displaced to the east of the nominal centre. This will be a rainmaker and heavy downpours may be expected along the east coast of Florida and the Gulf coast as far west as New Iberia, perhaps.

Stand by for possible storm force winds and heavy rain in the east and central Gulf.

Otherwise, stand easy.