Three disturbances seaborne

Monday 11th June 2018

There are now three disturbances on the move.

From west to east;
Disturbance Three hasn't moved far from its current position, centred around 100 miles north of the Panama Canal but is taking shape now. This will move slowly north west over the next few days and is expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. There is a mixed bag of environmental conditions ahead which is producing a wide range of possibilities - the usual catastrophists are discussing a tropical storm forming over the south-western Gulf of Mexico at the weekend whilst others are doubtful of development at all. We should have a better idea tomorrow. This is already causing rainfall across the far south western Caribbean and irrespective of development, this will produce an increase in rainfall across the Gulf of Mexico later this week and into the weekend.

Disturbance Four is tracking west across the coast of Venezuela at 20 knots but unlikely to develop at this speed. This is causing showers and thunderstorms across northern Venezuela and Colombia and may merge with Disturbance Three.

Disturbance Five has formed 250 miles due north of the mouth of the Amazon, dashing west at 21 knots which should keep development in check but will produce showers and thunderstorms across the Windward Islands tomorrow and into Wednesday.

Stand easy.