Disturbance Three shaping up for Gulf of Mexico

Tuesday 12th June 2018

Disturbance Four, which swept west past Lake Maracaibo yesterday, has merged with Disturbance Three in the south western Caribbean and edged north close to Nicaragua's Mosquito coast. The new Disturbance Three will now get under way and head for the Yucatan Channel to enter the Gulf of Mexico on Friday. I hate to alarm you but a very reliable modeller (and of course the Canadian guy) had this down as a hurricane for a while, although have both since downgraded. I can't see it. Conditions would seem to be against this although a week tropical storm is possible, if not a tropical depression, headed to make the coast somewhere 100 miles either side of Brownsville. Wherever this lands, it will be a rainmaker across north-eastern Mexico, Texas and into Louisiana. After the biblical amounts of rain from HARVEY last year, anything less may seem like drizzle but figures of 6 to 10 inches are being kicked about.

Disturbance Five is now 400 miles east of Trinidad, rushing west at 22 knots. This ground speed will not allow meaningful vertical convection to take place, so aside from showers and thunderstorms across the path ahead through the Windward Islands, Trinidad, Tobago, and another downpour for the Netherlands Antilles, this won't be of significant concern.

Stand easy.