Gulf coast disturbance to produce sub-biblical rainfall

Tuesday 3rd July 2018

From west to east;

Disturbance Twelve is passing just south of the Mississippi delta, westbound at about 8 knots. As this traces the Gulf coast, half over land and half seaborne, it won't achieve the necessary moisture to develop. Furthermore, upper level shear will prevent vertical convection as it heads towards southeastern Louisiana later today into southeastern Texas tomorrow. This will however cycle bands of rain, heavy in places but well short of biblical amounts.

Disturbance Ten is located in the western Caribbean midway between Colombia and the coast of Nicaragua moving west at 15 knots. No tropical development is expected.

Disturbance Eleven is about a day east of the Windward Island westbound and 18 knots. No development is expected there either.

Impressive Disturbance Thirteen is now about a day and a half west of the Cape Verde Island moving west at 18 knots. Aerial imagery shows a fairly large wheel of heavy squalls associated with this, which would normally be fair warning of development to come, however a wide sweep of airborne Saharan sand will put paid to that.

Stand easy.