Hurricane BERYL a wiry little bruiser

Friday 6th July 2018

From west to east;

Disturbance Eleven is about to cross the Mosquito coast of Nicaragua after which it will leave our radar screen. This won't develop further but will cause heavy showers across Central America and southern Mexico over the coming weekend.

Disturbance Fourteen is little more than a trough of low pressure now having looped-the-loop well to the east of the roughly Outer Banks of North Carolina over the past 24 hours. This is still meandering and undecided on its final trajectory but is expected to loaf about a little longer without much development before heading off to the north-east without bothering anyone on the eastern seaboard.

The star of today's show is Hurricane BERYL which is now around 1,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. This formed out of Disturbance Thirteen which put up a spirited scrap against airborne sand during its Atlantic crossing from which it has emerged as a wiry little bruiser. BERYL is currently headed west-nor'west at 12 knots and has a hurricane severity index rating of 5 out of a possible 50 points (2 for size and 3 for intensity) with a fairly imminent forecast maximum of 8 (3 for size, 5 for intensity). Current wind speeds are around 65 knots gusting to 85 knots. BERYL is a tiny little hurricane with tropical storm force winds over only a 40 mile radius. This has a few hours of intensification possibilities ahead but will then meet hostile air again and may not have the scale to survive as a hurricane for too long, and weaken substantially once it enters the Caribbean. Nonetheless, the good people of the eastern Caribbean should have their first storm preparations of the season in place.

Stand by with storm cones aloft over the Lesser Antilles. 

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