Category Two hurricane CHRIS set to pass Nova Scotia
Wednesday 11th July 2018
The scrag ends of BERYL are passing east of the Bahamas and moving slowly north with some limited squalls and thunderstorms in tow. There is a chance the system could revive but would only be kitten-weak really and will be moving clear of land.
Category Two hurricane CHRIS is now about 400 miles east of Cape Hatteras moving north-east at 18 knots and is at a development crossroads. The storm is moving over warmer water now which is ideal for vertical convection but at the same time, hitting a band of upper level wind shear which will blow the top off the eye column. In all likelihood, this may mean that CHRIS is at peak intensity now. The current and therefore, peak hurricane severity index rating is 15 out of a possible 50 points (7 for size and 8 for intensity), producing winds of 90 to 100 knots and has a tropical storm force windfield of 160 miles, which may spread to 220 miles as the intensity decreases. As this heads north-east, the tropical-storm windfield will brush along the coast of north-eastern Nova Scotia tomorrow and hurricane-force wind gusts across portions of south-eastern Newfoundland through Thursday night into Friday.
Disturbance Fifteen is now about three and a half days west of the Cape Verde Islands – or in simpler terms, just short of half way across the pond, and is moving west at 8 knots. This is in the thick of Saharan air and not expected to develop.
Disturbance Sixteen is passing the Cape Verde Islands and also moving west at 8 knots. This disturbance is producing some showers and thunderstorms, but significant development is not expected.
Storm cones aloft over Nova Scotia.