Adverse conditions keeping four Atlantic disturbances kitten weak

Monday 13th August 2018

From west to east,

Disturbance Twenty Two is currently midway between the Cayman Islands and the Yucatan peninsula, westbound at a brisk 22 knots. This still has a fairly broad swipe of squalls surrounding it, mainly in its wake. This still shows no sign of surface organisation and is expected to cross into the Bay of Campeche tomorrow but only as a weak non-developing rainmaker.

450 miles due north of the mouth of the Amazon, Disturbance Twenty Four is headed west at 18 knots. This will bring enhanced rainfall and the odd thunderstorm to the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday and Thursday but also faces adverse development conditions aloft.

Disturbance Twenty Five has hardly budged since yesterday, still centred 500 miles south-sou'east of Newfoundland. Aerial imagery shows a decrease in thunderstorm activity overnight, however conditions remain favourable for this to develop tropical or subtropical characteristics in a day or two while it languishes around in the same area. Once this gets a shift on, it will head seaward into the north Atlantic without bothering anyone ashore.

Disturbance Twenty Six has joined the party today, clearing the coast of Mauretania a few hours ago, westbound at 13 knots but sand awaits and is likely to keep this kitten-weak.

Stand easy.

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