Modellers' season relaunched on both sides of the Atlantic

Thursday 30th August 2018

Disturbance Twenty Nine is currently approaching the British Virgin Islands headed west-nor'west at 12 knots. As we anticipated four days ago, this is headed for a development window across the northern Dominican Republic and Haiti. This has since woken the sleeping modellers from their long dry spell, as it is set to cross warm water with little in the way of wind shear in its path to prevent development. By Monday afternoon, this will pass the southern Bahamas and into the Florida Straits, bringing squally weather with considerable rain across the region. Thereafter, opinions are divided. European modellers have this heading north toward the central Gulf coasts as a tropical storm. The Canadian guy has gone for this track as well, beefing it up to a hurricane of course. On the other hand, the American modellers prefer a westerly track towards central Texas but more modest in intensity – with squalls and heavy rain but not reaching storm force.

Disturbance Thirty is around three days west of the Cape Verde Islands moving west through thinning sand at 10 knots. Development seems most unlikely.

Disturbance Thirty One would appear to be the modellers' centrefold today. Despite this having yet to leave the African coast, there is already excited chatter surrounding it, in part down to already having ready-made surface circulation. It would appear an almost unanimous view that this will become a tropical storm and perhaps reach hurricane intensity. A broad low pressure system crossing the north Atlantic from west to east will sweep this north once it is seaborne, so aside from gusty winds and heavy rain across the Cape Verde Islands, this is destined to become a fish storm.

Stand easy.