Weather watch on the south-eastern Gulf of Mexico

Friday 31st August 2018

Disturbance Twenty Nine is now centred around 90 miles south of Port Au Prince, Haiti headed west-nor'west at dead slow ahead. This has opened a little overnight into a broad trough of low pressure, the northern edge of which is interacting with an upper level low north of Cuba. This will form a joint venture with two possibilities. The route north towards the central Gulf coast with some intensification, which the European modellers and the Canadian guy have been touting or, that of the US modellers, a more modest development and leisurely track towards the coast of Texas. This will be clearer tomorrow. Regardless of development, this will cause enhanced rainfall anywhere between the Florida Panhandle and southern Texas.

Disturbance Thirty is the runt of today's litter. Centred around 450 miles north east of the mouth of the Amazon and westbound at 12 knots, this is sand-bound and development is unlikely.

Disturbance Thirty One is now centred around 90 miles south-sou'west of the Cape Verde Islands headed west-nor'west at 10 knots. This is producing gale force winds but has not developed as rapidly as was expected this time yesterday. Nonetheless, most forecasters see this developing albeit slowly but may not hit the dizzy heights of tropical storm status for a few days. The anticipated track has not changed and an early curve to the north away from the convergence zone will mean stormy weather at sea in the east-central North Atlantic next week but no impact on land.

Weather watch on the south eastern Gulf otherwise stand easy.