Storm development expected in Gulf of Mexico

Monday 3rd September 2018

From west to east,

Intensifying Disturbance Twenty Nine is now centred 80 miles east-sou'east of the Florida Straits headed west-nor'west at 16 knots. This is expected to develop into a tropical depression in the next six hours prior to entering the Gulf of Mexico. The predicted track looks set for a landfall somewhere around the mouth of the Mississippi late tomorrow as a weak tropical storm bringing heavy rain from south Florida across to the coast of Texas. If this does make tropical storm force, it will be short-lived and hopefully not gather enough energy to be much more than a noisy, very wet and brief event offshore and on to landfall. Helicopter operations offshore are likely to be suspended late tomorrow and Tuesday but wholescale shutdowns are unlikely. This has really crept up on everyone, since modellers initially wrote this off the moment it left the African coast. Except for us, of course. Just saying.

Disturbance Thirty is passing the south of Puerto Rico moving west at a brisk and development-proof 22 knots. This has a wide sweep of rain and thunderstorm activity associated with it which is impacting on the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic now. Tropical storm development is most unlikely.
Tropical Storm FLORENCE is centred 800 miles west-nor'west of the Cape Verde Islands moving west-nor'west at 16 knots. This has intensified and is producing sustained winds of 55 knots or Beaufort force 10, if you like. If this continues on this track instead of the initially expected early turn to the north, this may pass close to Bermuda in around a week from now.

New Disturbance Thirty Two is now slipping the African coast and set to follow the normal track to the west. Conditions ahead are changing and becoming more favourable for storm development. Early days of course.

Stand by for storm development in the east-central Gulf, and hang on to your hats in the east-central Atlantic.