FLORENCE eyeing eastern seaboard landfall
Saturday 8th September 2018
From west to east,
Disturbance Thirty Five piped up about 150 miles west-sou'west of Bermuda overnight and is expected to loaf about in this area for a few days before being consumed by approaching FLORENCE.
I'm afraid there is not much positive news about FLORENCE as things stand. Safe options would seem few and far between. Centred 800 miles east-sou'east of Bermuda and westbound at 6 knots, Hurricane FLORENCE slipped a little south of track last night. As a consequence, the cyclone missed the trough of low pressure which the American modellers hoped would act as a meteorological slingshot to take the storm north between Bermuda and the eastern seaboard, then out to sea. Instead, FLORENCE will make a landfall on the eastern seaboard as a powerful hurricane. It is too early to pinpoint a landfall however the smart money is on the Carolinas, late this coming week. A slow ground speed will also provide more time to intensify and collect moisture. Not good.
Disturbance Thirty Two dug in overnight and is now a tropical depression and expected to become a tropical storm soon. Currently centred around 1700 miles east of the Leeward Islands and headed west at 5 knots, this will reach the islands in around five days' time. Environmental conditions are favourable for this to reach hurricane force before landfall however adverse conditions aloft in the Caribbean may cause early weakening thereafter.
Disturbance Thirty Three was off like a greyhound after leaving the African coast and became Tropical Storm HELENE. This is now about 300 miles east-sou'east of the Cape Verde Islands and moving slightly north of due west at 10 knots to pass near the southernmost Cape Verde Islands tomorrow. This also has a positive environment aloft and may quickly hit hurricane intensity before disappearing into east Atlantic anonymity as a fishstorm.
Stand by for storm conditions across the Cape Verde Islands and hurricane plans out for the Windward Islands and the eastern seaboard.