Three hurricanes seaborne
Monday 10th September 2018
New disturbance Thirty Seven has developed over the north-west Caribbean and is producing a large area of heavy squalls but there are no indications of a circulation developing. This will move into the south-central Gulf on Tuesday then track slowly north towards the Texas coast by Thursday. There seems to be no serious signs of development at the moment.
Hurricane FLORENCE is now around 1250 miles south east of Wilmington, NC headed west-nor'west at 10 knots. This is blowing a hoolie at 110 knots. FLORENCE has a current hurricane severity index rating of 15 out of 50 (5 for size and 10 for intensity) with a predicted maximum at landfall of a powerful 32 (13 size, 19 for intensity) which will have a tropical storm force windfield radius of 160 miles. There would appear to be little in the way of meteorological mitigation ahead which would prevent this making a landfall in North Carolina as a category 4 storm on Thursday evening, but I wouldn't dismiss a turn before that which could mean a protracted swipe along the coast.
Hurricane ISAAC is now 1100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles headed due west at 16 knots. This has a current hurricane severity index rating of 8 (3 for size and 5 for intensity) which is close to a predicted peak of 9 (3 for size and 6 for intensity). ISAAC is predicted to strike the central Lesser Antilles as a hurricane or strong tropical storm Thursday morning, but thereafter weakening as it enters the Caribbean due to strong wind shear. This is a tiny little storm but packs a punch which may weaken before landfall, but I wouldn't count on it.
The third of today's hurricanes is HELENE now 300 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands and starting to curve away harmlessly towards the north west and is expected to turn to the north in a couple of days, well clear of land.
Harsh days at sea and storm cones aloft in the Carolinas and Lesser Antilles.