Three new disturbances but no imminent threat to land

Wednesday 19th September 2018

The scrag ends of ISAAC are approaching the Yucatan peninsula at walking pace. Weak and lacking any meaningful shape, this will probably make it into the Bay of Campeche next week and produce squally weather but little else.

Disturbance Thirty Eight crossed the Leeward Islands last night and is now headed west at 23 knots, a ground speed which will nicely prevent cyclone development.

Disturbance Thirty Nine is a fledgling low pressure cell which has formed 100 miles north-east of Bermuda. This is moving north-nor'east at 12 knots which will keep it well clear of land. This has some shape to it and line squalls radiating from its nominal centre, but wind shear should keep this in check.

Well to the north of our usual line of sight, Disturbance Forty One has piped up 250 miles south of Long Island. This is technically a nontropical system which has spun off from FLORENCE. Its difficult to predict where this will go but is likely to remain well offshore.

Another new system has developed in the central Atlantic. Disturbance Forty is around 650 miles north east of the mouth of the Amazon moving west-nor'west at 12 knots and could reach the Leeward Islands over the coming weekend. This has some shape to it however, there is some wind shear in the area which should keep development at bay.

JOYCE eventually petered out somewhere south of the Azores. Done and dusted.

Stand easy.