KIRK shaping up for weak impact around Barbados

Tuesday 25th September 2018

Uninspiring Disturbance Forty One is now around 250 miles south of Cape Hatteras. This has a bit of a spring in its step but may be kept in check as it enters a band of upper level wind shear which will keep any muck and filth offshore. Nonetheless, as this approaches the coast there may be a burst of development but likely to coincide with a sharp about turn, and a track north-east away from the eastern seaboard late tomorrow.

The scrag ends of KIRK are centred loosely around 950 miles east of the Leeward Islands headed west at 18 knots. A window of opportunity is opening up for KIRK to reorganise before reaching the islands, currently shaping up for Barbados on Thursday with heavy thunderstorms capable of producing tropical storm force winds. At peak, this is expected to have a weak profile with a hurricane severity index rating of just 3 out of a possible 50 points (1 for size and 2 for intensity). Beyond that, conditions are unfavourable for KIRK to maintain any threat once it begins to trek into the south-eastern Caribbean.

Subtropical Depression LESLIE is still lounging around some 1150 miles west-sou'west of the Azores. This is expected to continue to loaf about in the same area and may intensify later in the week - the Canadian guy thinks this will become a hurricane of course - but in any event, won't have any impact on land. Eventually this should accelerate away to the north east and disappear into North Atlantic anonymity.

Weak Disturbance Forty Four is passing south of the Cape Verde Islands, westbound at 12 knots. This faces unfavourable development conditions as things stand. Early days.

Stand easy.