Storm clouds headed for Gulf of Mexico
Saturday 6th October 2018
Disturbance Forty Six is predicted to become a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico on Monday with a maximum hurricane severity index rating of 5 out of 50 (2 for size and 3 for intensity) with a storm force windfield radius of 80 miles. Currently situated 180 miles south-sou'east of Cozumel headed north-nor'west at 4 knots, landfall is currently expected to occur on Wednesday along the Florida panhandle. This is uncertain and I would suggest may nudge further west and, if upper level shear weakens, could intensify. Offshore asset managers m would be well advised to have hurricane response plans in place.
Well to the north of the convergence zone, boring Tropical Storm LESLIE is still stooging around, some 500 miles north-east of Bermuda, now ambling mindlessly south-east. This track is expected to continue for the next five days or thereabouts, before intensifying to hurricane strength again. After that is anyone's guess, but a few modellers have an eye on the Azores, but in my view this is far too early to speculate.
Disturbance Forty Eight has piped up 450 miles due north of the mouth of the Amazon, westbound at 8 knots. This will reach the Lesser Antilles on Sunday bringing heavy rain showers and thunderstorms across the region. Whilst environmental conditions are unfavourable for development in the Caribbean, this track is prone to producing storms at this time of the season.
Disturbance Forty Seven is about two days astern of Forty Eight and plodding west at 10 knots. This is the runt of today's litter and may be set for early dissipation.
Storm plans ready in the Gulf of Mexico, more storm conditions in the west central Atlantic otherwise stand easy