Hurricane expected to make landfall in east central Gulf coast
Sunday 7th October 2018
Disturbance Forty Six upgraded to Tropical Depression Fourteen overnight and has hove to momentarily about 90 miles south of Cozumel Island. This should get a head of steam up soon and head north. This stoppage will cause further intensification to tropical storm strength as it transits the Yucatan channel into the Gulf. Heavy rain is expected for the Yucatan and western Cuba and thereafter it is expected to move towards the northern Gulf Coast. Landfall is predicted to occur on Wednesday between Mobile Bay and the Big Bend of Florida and unfortunately likely to hit hurricane strength before landfall. This is expected to have a hurricane severity index rating of 12 out of a possible 50 points (5 size, 7 intensity) and a tropical storm force windfield of 200 miles. Not good.
Spurred into action no doubt by yesterday's description of ‘boring', LESLIE has started a dash to the east from its present position 1000 miles west of the western Azores and is expected to track between the Azores and Madeira later this week. This also has more than a whiff of hurricane intent to it.
Disturbance Forty Eight is centred a day and a half east of the Leeward Islands and is moving west at 18 knots. This disturbance should bring enhanced rainfall to parts of the Lesser Antilles today and tomorrow, however tropical development is not expected.
Disturbance Forty Seven is around mid way between the African coast and the Caribbean moving to the west-nor'west at 8 knots. Environmental conditions are only marginal for development and this is likely to curve to the north long before reaching the Leeward Islands.
Disturbance Fifty has formed well south of the Cabo Verde Islands and is moving west at 10 knots. A track west-nor'west is expected with little development and no threat to land.
Disturbance Forty Nine has formed about 400 miles west of Madeira and is moving east at 5 knots. Enhanced rainfall may result for Madeira in a few days time but little else.
Stand by for a strengthening tropical storm in the southern Gulf of Mexico.