MICHAEL making category 4 landfall

Wednesday 10th October 2018

Category 4 Hurricane MICHEAL is now around 50 miles south of the Florida panhandle headed north at 12 knots. This storm has reached peak with a hurricane severity index rating of 28 (11 for size and 17 for intensity) with a tropical storm force windfield radius of 275 miles and maximum winds in excess of 130 knots with gusts touching a ghastly 150 knots. This is a violent storm. Hurricane reconnaissance aircraft are continuing to buzz MICHEAL, and as yet none are reporting any coastal weakening. That's bad news, since without this anticipated weakening, MICHEAL make a full force landfall near Panama City this afternoon. Extreme damage from wind and storm surge is likely from Panama City to the east with significant inundation of coastal communities from storm surge likely as far east as the Big Bend Coast of Florida. Minor coastal flooding is also possible as far south as Tampa. Thereafter impacts will begin to extend well inland as the storm accelerates to the northeast. Heavy rain and damaging wind gusts are expected in far south-eastern Alabama and southwest Georgia late this afternoon and into the evening. By tomorrow, central South Carolina and eastern North Carolina are likely to have the heaviest rainfall with gales likely for the entire coast of the Carolinas. The worst excesses of MICHAEL will be around the eye and to the east and south. Offshore assets to the west will be less severely impacted but will certainly be exposed to tropical storm force winds.

Disturbance Forty Eight is passing 90 miles south of Haiti, moving west at 10 knots. This will lose speed during the next few days and will start to interact with the same monsoon trough that spawned MICHEAL where environmental conditions are expected to become more favourable for tropical development. The Canadian guy still has this following MICHAEL but is a lone voice and if this develops, any system that develops would head for Central America, the Yucatan, and possibly the Bay of Campeche.
Disturbance Forty Seven is centred 550 miles north of the Amazon and moving west at 12 knots. This is weak and no tropical development is expected as it approaches the Lesser Antilles.

LESLIE upgraded to a hurricane again last night in the central subtropical Atlantic. This is expected to intensify during the next couple of days before it starts to weaken. The long range track remains uncertain.

Disturbance Fifty
intensified into Tropical Storm NADINE last night. Now centred 500 miles west-sou'west of the Cape Verde Islands and moving north-nor'west at 5 knots, this is no threat to land.

Stand by for MICHAEL landfall along the Florida panhandle.