MICHAEL crossing Georgia after powerful landfall

Thursday 11th October 2018

From west to east –

Weak Disturbance Fifty One has formed over the Bay of Campeche out of an active monsoon trough which stretches across southern Mexico and Central America. This is moving west-nor'west at 8 knots. At this stage of the season, tropical developments may arise from this type of event. I doubt this will accrue enough sea-time to develop, and in any event, there is a good whack of upper level wind shear to keep this in check.

As we are all aware, there is plenty of instant intelligence available on Tropical Storm MICHAEL, so I will only briefly summarise until seaborne again tomorrow. We will undoubtedly know more after daybreak, but this was a violent storm at landfall. MICHAEL is weakening now, albeit still producing torrential rain as it accelerates across central Georgia on a north-easterly heading and will cross the coast again tonight, close to the border between North Carolina and Virginia. MICHAEL will then start intensifying again but likely to remain on this heading and head harmlessly seaward although gusts of tropical storm force winds may be felt along the eastern seaboard as far as Cape Cod.

South again, Disturbance Forty Eight is centred mid-way between Jamaica and the moving west at 12 knots. This is still expected to slow down and take some development time in the tail of the monsoon trough that's been a feature of MICHAEL and Disturbance Fifty One. The only dissenter from the rational concept of this going north and west across the Yucatan and into the Bay of Campeche is the Canadian guy who has this down for shadowing MICHAEL. That won't happen. Fake news.

Kitten-weak Disturbance Forty Seven is a day and a half east of the Lesser Antilles headed west at 10 knots. No tropical development is expected.

Tedious Hurricane LESLIE is now 1,000 miles south-west of the Azores moving to the east-nor'east at 8 knots with maximum winds of a brisk 75 knots. This will maintain hurricane intensity for a few more days, but is still impossible to predict thereafter. The majority of modellers have this going west again, clear of land and continuing to alternately bully and bore fish and sailors.

Tropical Storm NADINE is centred about 600 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands, moving north-west at 6 knots with maximum sustained winds of around 60 knots. This is expected to weaken over the next few days and will dissipate over the weekend.

Stand by for continued storm conditions across the south-eastern seaboard.