Solitary disturbance passing north of Lake Maracaibo
Monday 22nd October 2018
There is just a single disturbance across the reporting region today. Disturbance Fifty Four passed north of Lake Maracaibo a few hours ago on its trek west at 17 knots. This will enhance shower and thunderstorm activity across northern Venezuela and Colombia today, otherwise environmental conditions are unfavourable for development and we may have a few quiet days ahead.
The overall picture is one of the season being firmly on the down ramp and a developing El Nino across the Pacific underlines that. Nonetheless, National Hurricane Centre records show an average of two named storms developing in the Atlantic, Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico region after October 20th every year. Most of these systems develop in the western or central Caribbean or in the western Atlantic Ocean and then move north or northeast which means nobody can pack the storm cones away yet.