Monday 3rd June 2019
Satellite imagery of Disturbance Two is showing an increase in disorganised squalls radiating from the nominal centre, which is currently 190 miles south-east of Tampico headed north-west at a leisurely 5 knots. The slow rate of advance and slight turn north since this first appeared, will give the disturbance more sea time and perhaps an opportunity to develop into a tropical depression or even a weak tropical storm before making landfall somewhere north of Tampico tomorrow night. As this heads north, it will enter a band of westerly wind shear which will have final word on development but less so in the south, which will not be good news for the eastern coast of Mexico. Even if this does defy all odds and head north along the coast into Texas, wind shear will prevent development of strong winds and tidal surge, but 6-8 inches of rainfall maybe on the cards for Tuesday and Wednesday.
The Canadian Guy has picked this up and plotted a track towards the Mississippi as a tropical storm. I kid you not.
Stand by for heavy rainfall along the coast of Mexico into southern Texas, otherwise stand easy.