Upper level wind shear prevailing in the Caribbean

Thursday 20th June 2019

Disturbance Five crossed the Leeward Islands around 8 hours ago westbound at a crisp 20 knots. Upper level wind shear is putting the reins on development and this is unlikely to concern anyone unduly.

Disturbance Six is centred around 750 miles north east of the mouth of the Amazon headed west at 15 knots. This is still encountering dry air and the same upper level shear awaits in the southern Caribbean. There is an outside chance of development being kicked about by one or two of the usual catastrophists, including the Canadian guy but I can't see it myself, aside from some enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity across northern South America and the eastern Caribbean over the coming weekend.

So far, so good.
Stand easy. 

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