2019 storm season building a head of steam

Monday 8th July 2019

With four disturbances seaborne, it seems the peak season rush is about to begin.

From west to east;
Disturbance Eleven is the talk of the day. Currently centred over west central Mississippi and headed east-sou'east at walking pace towards the Florida panhandle and into the north-eastern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday. Once seaborne, this is expected to turn west and parallel the coast before beaching again somewhere west of the mouth of the Mississippi towards the end of the week.

Conditions along the Gulf coast are favourable for development for storm development. As we know, storm systems running close and parallel to coastlines produce an effective suction and discharge cycle from sea to land. As this is also slow moving, this has potential to be a substantial rainmaker. The modellers are out in force, but with a wide range of predicted tracks and intensities from ‘somewhere between the Florida panhandle and Corpus Christi' and ‘anything between tropical disturbance and strong tropical storm' we only have a rather useless summary at this time.

Disturbance Twelve has just left the African coast, moving to the west at 12 knots. This has seized a two to three day break in sand waves and also has some favourable conditions ahead, but may end up in a sand pit again as it nears the Caribbean, all being well.

Disturbance Nine is about a day's steaming east of Trinidad headed west at a brisk 20 knots. We like fast systems as they don't allow vertical convection to develop. Nonetheless, this will bring showers and storms to the Windward Islands later today.

Disturbance Ten is now about midway between the Caribbean and the African coast moving west at 18 knots. There is a band of squalls radiating from the nominal centre but airborne sand is ruling the day.

Stand easy