Stand by storm plans in the northern Gulf of Mexico

Tuesday 8th July 2019

Disturbance Eleven has crept south to an area over south western Georgia and is moving to the south-sou'west at 5 knots. This will enter the north eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight then move west across the northern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday where the environment for development is favourable. Few doubt that this will produce a tropical storm. The smart money is on a moderate to strong storm formation on Thursday slowly tracking west followed by a landfall as a moderate to a strong tropical storm on Saturday somewhere west of the Mississippi. There is considerable uncertainty surrounding this, so caution is needed.

Disturbance Twelve has just passed the Cape Verde Islands, westbound at 20 knots. This has a development window ahead but is likely to be short-lived.

Disturbance Nine is passing the Leeward Islands now at a crisp 18 knots bringing showers and thunderstorms across the eastern Caribbean today but a wall of upper level shear awaits, which should put this to bed.

Disturbance Ten is centred around 450 miles north east of the mouth of the Amazon westbound at 18 knots. This has a pattern of squalls around a nominal centre but dry air would seem to have the upper hand.

I would suggest the time has come to blow the dust off the storm response plans and go to stand by in the northern Gulf.