BARRY set for landfall

Saturday 13th July 2019

Fifteen minutes ago, tropical storm BARRY was centred just 29 miles south-sou'east of Vermilion Bay headed north-nor'west at 9 knots shaping up for a landfall in three to four hours time. The current hurricane severity index rating for BARRY is 6 out of a possible 50 points (2 size, 4 intensity) with winds of between 65 to 75 knots. The tropical storm strength wind field radius is 140 miles. Some slight shortening of the convection column as this starts making landfall will increase size and intensity slightly at landfall to a hurricane severity index rating of 8 (3 for size, 5 for intensity). This will have intensity teetering on the edge of cat 1 hurricane strength, but really only academic. BARRY is a very nasty rainmaker indeed and will cause significant flooding across southern Louisiana. A couple of knots either way on wind speed isn't going to make much difference.

Disturbance Ten is passing the the Lesser Antilles now, moving west at 8 knots. This is kitten weak and not expected to develop.

Disturbance Twelve is now 420 miles north east of the mouth of the Amazon moving west at 12 knots. This has continued to show some respectable surface organisation but steadfastly refuses to produce any vertical convection, possibly still as a result of airborne sand. The perfect development window is closing for this system now.

Disturbance Thirteen has just left the African coast. This already has a twinkle in its eye with a hint of rotation and squalls radiating from it. Sand awaits. Let's see.

Stand by for BARRY landfall with flooding in southern Louisiana.