New system leaving West African coast
Tuesday 16th July 2019
From west to east:
BARRY has dissipated over Arkansas. Done.
Disturbance Twelve is centred around 210 miles south of Jamaica dashing west at 28 knots. There is some thunderstorm activity to the east of the centre, but the system can't develop any truly meaningful circulation or vertical convection at this speed so we are on a safe bet.
Disturbance Thirteen is centred 500 miles north east of the mouth of the Amazon, also westbound at a breakneck 28 knots. This is kitten-weak now and unlikely to develop.
Disturbance Fourteen has slipped the African coast and is headed west into dry Saharan air, which should keep development in check for the first few days.