Enthusiastic new disturbance headed for early sand bath

1000 GMT Wednesday 17th July 2019

Disturbance Twelve has just cleared the south-western Caribbean, crossing the Mosquito Coast into Nicaragua. This has had its day.

Disturbance Thirteen is just short of two day's steaming east of Trinidad, charging west at a heady 30 knots. What little surface rotation remains will stall and dissipate once this reaches the eastern Caribbean, where upper level wind shear awaits.

Disturbance Fourteen is passing 200 miles south of the Cape Verde islands, westbound at 12 knots. This is showing some enthusiasm and has developed surface rotation with thunderstorm activity. This obviously has some intent to it, but the large belt of dry and dusty air ahead may have the casting vote.

Stand easy.