Weather watch on northern Gulf of Mexico

1600 GMT Saturday 20th July 2019

From west to east:

All eyes on a low pressure cell set to move into the northern Gulf by Tuesday and then sit tight for a few days, which may provide a development opportunity. The smart money is on this being a short-lived, weak event but it's a little early to write this off and a weather watch will be needed.

Disturbance Fifteen is centred around 600 miles east of the Bahamas, westbound at 15 knots and will reach the islands on Monday. There is some rotation to this and a few organised thunderstorms giving a slight chance of development, but still looks set to dodge the eastern seaboard.

Disturbance Eighteen has developed about a day's steaming east of Trinidad, westbound at 15 knots. This is encountering south westerly wind shear which should keep tropical development nicely in check but will bring enhanced showers and thunderstorms across the Lesser Antilles and the eastern Caribbean tomorrow and into Monday

Disturbance Fourteen has drifted north of the convergence zone moving to the northwest at 14 knots through a debilitating mass of dry, dusty air and weakening. Tropical development is not expected as it tracks into subtropical anonymity.

Steely-eyed Disturbance Sixteen is passing south-east of the Cape Verde Islands westbound at 14 knots. This has started surface rotation but vertical convection has decreased, evidenced by a decrease in thunderstorm activity. This may have a development window a day or two ahead but mid-level dry air will cause the system to weaken as it nears the Caribbean. Early days.

Stand easy.