Weather watch on northern Gulf during the coming week
Sunday 21st July 2019
From west to east;
The much anticipated cold front is still set to move into the northern Gulf by Tuesday and then stall. Most observers are predicting some thunderstorm activity with weak rotation but not expecting significant development. Nonetheless, Gulf of Mexico sea surface temperatures are above normal, so it is worth watching with caution.
Disturbance Fifteen is a day east of the Bahamas moving west at 14 knots. This has some organised surface rotation and aerial imagery shows cloud associated with some thunderstorm activity. This will pass the Bahamas tomorrow then pass close to Florida and South Carolina but without significant develops as things stand.
Disturbance Eighteen is a day east of the Lesser Antilles moving west at 14 knots. The islands are already experiencing some scattered heavy showers and the odd thunderstorm but upper level shear should keep a lid on development.
Determined Disturbance Sixteen is a day west of the Cape Verde Islands westbound at 15 knots. Spirited surface rotation would normally indicate an increased chance of development but Saharan air will pose a significant obstacle.