Weather watch on northern Gulf

Noon GMT Monday 22nd July 2019

The long-awaited cold front expected in the northern Gulf of Mexico is expected to materialise tomorrow. Once seaborne, this is expected to stall and develop some rotation.

At this time of year and given higher than normal sea temperatures in the area, this will inevitably enhance thunderstorm activity and produce localised heavy showers with some squalls but upper level shear looks set to rule the day. Any development is likely to be weak.

Disturbance Fifteen is over the Bahamas and moving slowly west. There is a slight chance that it will become a tropical depression before reaching southeast Florida tonight however most of the shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the system is expected to remain east of Florida. Significant impacts are not expected. Beyond tomorrow, the system is expected to turn north and be absorbed into a frontal boundary.

Disturbance Fifteen is centred around one day's steaming east of the Leeward Islands and is moving west at 22 knots. Dry air and a brisk ground speed are keeping the system from producing any meaningful structure. Development is not expected.

Disturbance Seventeen is around 3 days west of the Cape Verde Islands moving west at 14 knots. This is wading through sand and development is expected.

Stand easy.