Brief intensification off Florida coast
Tuesday 23rd July 2019
From west to east;
The long-awaited cold front which has attracted so much attention is edging into the northern Gulf of Mexico and still expected to form a stationary weak area of low pressure. Steering currents would take any potential system to the northeast but upper level shear should ensure this remains weak.
Disturbance Fifteen burst through a wall of upper level shear and was upgraded to Tropical Depression Three. Currently centered 40 miles north-east of Cape Canaveral moving north-nor'east at 12 knots. This has caused a flurry of excitement but environmental conditions are not favourable for significant further development although one or two of the more enthusiastic modellers have this down as a brief and weak tropical storm which will, in any event remain offshore.
Disturbance Seventeen is now in the eastern Caribbean but weakening and not really bothering anyone.
Disturbance Sixteen is loosely centred 800 miles north-east of the mouth of the Amazon and losing a scrap with airborne sand. No development is expected.
Disturbance Eighteen has just slipped the coast of West Africa. This is another excited and determined system with heavy shower and thunderstorm activity but set to hit the same wall of sand as its predecessor.
Weather watch off the eastern seaboard, otherwise stand easy.