Happy days but no room for complacency

Thursday 8th August 2019

Disturbance Twenty One is close to Nicaragua's Mosquito Coast headed ashore at 16 knots. This has put up a spirited fight and will end its track with a few thunderstorms and the odd heavy shower, but will dissipate once is leaves the water.

Disturbance Twenty Three is centred around 150 miles north of Puerto Rico moving towards the west-nor'west at 15 knots. This is disorganised, thunderstorm activity has decreased and the whole shebang is weakening. This is unlikely to survive much beyond the Turks and Caicos tomorrow.

Disturbance Twenty Two crossed the northernmost Windward Islands in the last few hours moving to the west-nor'west at a brisk 21 knots. This is leaving a trail of scattered thunderstorms in its wake but remains disorganised and will fall foul of upper level shear.

Disturbance Twenty Four is centred around 120 miles south of the cape Verde Islands moving to the west-nor'west at 12 knots, producing scattered showers and thunderstorms. Sandy air is already biting chunks out of this and surface rotation has already deteriorated. Tropical development is not expected.
While we are all sitting back enjoying what is normally the run-up to peak season, do remember that calm seas in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean allow water temperatures to rise, which is ideal for storm generation. There are also signs of a weakening El Nino which may cause an abrupt end to upper level shear. One or two of the determined US pessimists are hanging their hats on a disturbance forming in the Bay of Campeche in two weeks' time but this smacks of desperation. As an old sailor, I would ignore any forecast over seven days ahead and even less with caution. Despite the hostile skies between West Africa and central America, it only takes one to find a path through to fertile waters.

Stand easy.