No development - and a reflection on the present watch.

Many modellers have downgraded their gloomy prospects for the cold front drifting offshore between the north-eastern Gulf of Mexico and the Carolinas in the next couple of days producing a lusty low pressure cell. My money is still on this cell, if it appears at all, piping up off the south-eastern seaboard and heading harmlessly east into Atlantic anonymity.

Disturbance Twenty Five is now just a tad short of mid-way between the African coast and the Caribbean headed west at 15 knots. This is battling dry air and has upper level shear ahead, which will inhibit development. Shower and thunderstorm activity may be expected over the Lesser Antilles this coming weekend.

Whilst this seems to be an extraordinarily quiet season, it is not an unprecedented one. Looking at our own archive over the past fourteen years, the average number of named storms to have passed by 14th August is 3.75 against 2 for 2019. As we await the 2019 third named storm, third storms appeared on:

- 2005 CINDY July 3rd 

- 2006 CHRIS August 6th 

- 2007 CHANTAL July 31st 

- 2008 CHRISTOBAL July 18th

- 2009 CLAUDETTE August 16th 

- 2010 COLIN August 2nd

- 2011 CINDY July 20th 

- 2012 CHRIS June 29th

- 2013 CHANTAL July 6th 

- 2015 CLAUDETTE July 13th 

- 2016 COLIN June 7th

- 2017 CINDY June 23rd 

- 2018 CHRIS July 8th.

It's late, but it's coming.

Stand easy.

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