Region stirring from peak season slumber

Saturday 17th July 2019

From west to east,

Disturbance Twenty Eight formed overnight out of nowhere from a trough over the southwestern Caribbean, about a day east of the Mosquito coast of Nicaragua. Showers and thunderstorms have increased but without meaningful organisation. Environmental conditions are favourable for development but this is likely to hit the beach tomorrow before it gets a chance to dig in.

Disturbance Twenty Seven is another newbie which has appeared spanning the northern Florida peninsula.This is a weak trough of low pressure that is producing disorganised showers and thunderstorms and is expected to move northeast along the coast of Georgia and the Carolinas over the next 48 hours. This will produce locally heavy rainfall across the south-eastern states with the odd chance of flash flooding before heading into the western Atlantic.

Today's weather observer's pin-up is Disturbance Twenty Five, now around 12 hours east of the Lesser Antilles headed west at 18 knots. This will produce enhanced showers and thunderstorms across the Lesser Antilles this weekend but conditions remain unfavourable for development as it tracks across the eastern and central Caribbean this weekend into the first part of next week. This still has a chance of tropical development as it moves to the north-nor'west and may reach the south-western Gulf of Mexico later in the week where conditions are expected to become more favourable for development and unsullied warm water awaits.

Disturbance Twenty Six is now centred around 3 days west of the African coast moving west at 12 knots. Dry air awaits.

Stand easy.