Excited chatter around potential developments at sea
Sunday 18th August 2019
Disturbance Twenty Eight disappeared ashore into Nicaragua overnight and will dissipate over Central America. In the wake of this, all eyes are on a potential new disturbance forming across the western or northwestern Caribbean over the next 48 hours moving towards the southwestern Gulf of Mexico bringing deep tropical moisture with it. Conditions will be favourable for development over the western Gulf later this week which may result in this forming a tropical depression or weak tropical storm in the northwestern Gulf before moving into the Texas or western Louisiana coast next weekend.
Disturbance Twenty Seven moved into the coastal region of North Carolina moving northeast at 12 knots. This will continue to track northeast today and cross the Outer Banks of North Carolina into the western Atlantic. This may have a development window offshore with a possibility of reaching weak tropical storm intensity as it heads seaward.
Disturbance Twenty Five is now 12 hours west of the Lesser Antilles moving to the west-nor'west at 22 knots. This is producing enhanced showers and thunderstorms across the Lesser Antilles but is likely to dissipate as it approaches the Bahamas early this week due to wind shear and excessive ground speed.
Disturbance Twenty Six is four days west of the African coast moving west at 12 knots into a large area of dry and dusty air which will discourage tropical development.