Clouds gathering over central America and south-western Caribbean

Monday 19th August 2019

From west to east,

Disturbance Twenty Eighty dissipated over Nicaragua overnight as expected. The growing mass of moist air in its wake is spreading across the southwestern Caribbean this morning. Scattered heavy showers and impressive thunderstorms (what we in the UK call ‘August') have gathered across the entire south west corner from Nicaragua to the Panama canal zone, indicative of rising air. As yet, this system has not yet formed surface organisation but is sure to do so over the next 24 hours. This will then track to the north-west and is expected to enter the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. Conditions thereafter are expected to be marginally favourable for development later in the week before moving ashore along the Texas coast by Saturday. Surprisingly few observers have tropical storm development in their sights, but I would not dismiss it.

Disturbance Twenty Seven is still pushing seaward from the eastern seaboard, headed east-nor'east at 15 knots. Despite a well-developed low-level circulation pattern, it does seem as if upper level wind shear will increase before this can bother anyone at sea or friends in Bermuda.

Disturbance Twenty Six lost formation over the west tropical Atlantic and is now off radar.

Thunderstorms have decreased with Disturbance Twenty Five to the north of Puerto Rico as it tracks west-nor'west at 16 knots and should be done and dusted before reaching the Bahamas later this week.

Disturbance Twenty Nine is building up a head of steam across the coast of Guinea, set to launch itself onto the Atlantic production line. This has a glint in its eye and for the first time this season, may have a clearer run west with diminishing levels of airborne sand to damped its ardour. A couple of respected modellers (and one less-respected modeller) have tagged this as a tropical depression or weak tropical storm when it reaches the Lesser Antilles next weekend. Maybe.

Stand easy.