Brief walk-on part for CHANTAL

Wednesday 21st August 2019

From west to east,

Disturbance Thirty One has now reached the lower Bay of Campeche, inching west with a turn to the north expected tomorrow to approach the northern Gulf coast by Friday.

Despite the majority of observers talking this down, development into a tropical depression or weak tropical storm should not be ruled out. Irrespective of outcome this will be a rainmaker with heavy thunderstorms along the Upper Texas and Louisiana coast.

Disturbance Thirty Two has piped up from a revived previous system over the Bahamas. This is hardly moving but expected to edge slowly north-west over the coming weekend. This will enhance showers and thunderstorms over the Bahamas and portions of the southern and central Florida peninsula over the next few days. Thereafter, track and intensity are unclear but may find a favourable environment off the coast of the Carolinas next week but upper-level steering currents will almost certainly push this harmlessly seaward.

Disturbance Twenty Seven recovered and found favourable conditions some 600 miles south of St. John's Newfoundland and has formed Tropical Storm CHANTAL, with maximum sustained winds of just 35 knots. This will not strengthen further as it tracks to the south-east over the next couple of days, mildly entertaining sailors and fish in a brief walk-on role in an otherwise uninspiring B-grade season. Thus far.

Keen Disturbance Thirty is three days west of the African coast moving west at 10 knots. Dry air is keeping the system weak and despite its youthful enthusiasm, development prospects are poor in the face of more dry air and upper-level shear ahead .

An enlightened addressee has shed some light on my question yesterday as to why NOAA has upgraded their storm prospects for this featureless season. His suggestion is that NOAA have signed up the Canadian guy. How did I miss that?

Stand by for brief mucky weather in the north Atlantic, otherwise stand easy.