CHANTAL fading south of United State of Greenland

Thursday 22nd August 2019

Disturbance Thirty is still drifting aimlessly north in the south-western Gulf of Mexico. It does seem as if the window for development, indeed if there ever was one, is closing although of course any low pressure cell in the Gulf of Mexico at this time of year over heating, undisturbed water has a potential to be a threat. The principal concern with this system will be the biblical quantity of water this is scooping up as it loafs about over warm, still water. This will ultimately be unceremoniously dumped on the Upper Texas and western Louisiana coasts over the weekend as heavy rainfall, accompanied by some impressive thunderstorms.

Disturbance Thirty One is almost stationary over the Bahamas with a hint of a north-westerly nudge just starting to show on radar. This has also taken on a significant quantity of moisture which will produce localised thunderstorms and some heavy rain over the Bahamas and along the east coast of Florida this weekend. Thereafter, this will run parallel to the eastern seaboard where more favourable conditions may await as it crosses the Outer Banks. Regardless of development, this will peel off seaward, following a similar track to CHANTAL.

Tropical depression CHANTAL continues to slowly weaken now 700 miles south east of Newfoundland headed east-sou'east at 15 knots with maximum sustained winds of just 30 knots. This is expected to diminish to a remnant low later with perhaps a brief revival tomorrow as it heads north towards the 51st state, Greenland.

Tenacious Disturbance Twenty Nine is now about mid-way between the African coast and the Caribbean, westbound at 13 knots, labouring through sand-laden air. Aerial imagery does show some signs of rotation but this still faces some difficult environmental conditions and development chances remain rather slender. Raincoats for the Bahamas, otherwise stand easy.