DORIAN making St Lucia landfall

Tuesday 27th August 2019

Tropical Storm DORIAN is making a landfall on St Lucia now. Whilst this is never good news, south-westerly upper level shear displacing the convection column is the sole reason that DORIAN hasn't reached hurricane intensity and the current reported 40 knot winds are not generally associated with catastrophe. After passing St Lucia, DORIAN is expected to head north-west towards the Mona Passage between Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. A nudge east or west will make a significant difference in development due to interaction with land, and the ongoing impact of upper level shear is not yet clear. Some observers believe DORIAN will dissipate between St Lucia and the Mona Passage but I think that's wildly ambitious. If this retains organisation and recovers interaction with the islands, it is likely to track north-east across the Bahamas on Thursday and Friday where development conditions are ripe for tropical storm development and a landfall in Florida next weekend.

Tropical Depression Six is lazing about some 300 miles east of Cape Hatteras over warm water, preparing to reach tropical storm intensity and resume a north-easterly track later today. This is still not likely to be of interest to anyone along the eastern seaboard but may pose a threat as it approaches Atlantic Canada on Thursday.

Standby for DORIAN making landfall in St Lucia.