Cat 2 DORIAN bound for Bahamas and Florida landfalls

Friday 30th August 2019

We awake from a thus far gentle season by the prospect of Hurricane DORIAN making violent landfalls in both the Bahamas and Florida late this coming weekend. Currently at category 2 strength centred 690 miles east of Palm Beach, moving north-west at 10 knots, DORIAN has a hurricane severity index rating of 13 out of a possible 50 (4 for size and 9 for intensity) with a predicted peak of 22 (5 for size and 17 for intensity. This is a nasty storm which will be at category 4 when it strikes the northern Bahamas, currently expected to be around the Abacos and Grand Bahama Islands on Sunday evening. As DORIAN approaches Florida, strengthening may be feasible before landfall. Opinions are divided thereafter between a track north along or parallel to the peninsula or a slow crawl into the Gulf of Mexico. To add to the woes of destructive winds, considerable flooding is to be expected as this slow progress is also likely to result in DORIAN becoming a rainmaker.

A new disturbance may be developing to the southwest of Florida which is expected to drift slowly west next week. It is early days yet but given atmospheric conditions in the region, a weather watch may be wise for assets across the western Gulf.

Disturbance Thirty Three remains stationary off the West African Coast. A slow, west-nor'westerly track is expected over the next week with some favourable conditions ahead.

Stand by for hurricane conditions across the Bahamas.