Hurricane DORIAN on final approach to northern Bahamas
Saturday 31st August 2019
Hurricane DORIAN is on final approach to northern Bahamas just 275 miles east of the Abacos Islands headed west-nor'west at a leisurely 6 knots. From a dispassionate purist's view, this is a classic structure with a compact, well-defined convection column and a powerful rate of water uplift which will benefit greatly from a low groundspeed over warm water. From a consumer's view, this is a nasty, destructive little beast with a tropical storm wind field of only 90 miles and hurricane force winds extending just 25 miles from the storm centre where winds of up to 145 knots are being observed. DORIAN has yet to peak, currently at 20 out of 50 (4 for size, 16 for intensity) with a forecast high of 23 (5 for size and 18 for intensity). Unchecked, DORIAN will hit Great Abaco Island and Grand Bahama Island as a category 4 hurricane tomorrow at a prolonged slow speed of advance. The track towards Florida thereafter is rather uncertain but will in all likelihood not weaken substantially before landfall on Tuesday but a turn towards the north east along the coast, perhaps before landfall, is becoming a possibility. In any event, this will be a powerful rainmaker across or along the south eastern seaboard.
Disturbance Thirty Four has developed a day west of the Florida Strait moving west at 6 knots. This is spread over a wide trough which will reduce significant development in the short term but has time on its side at slow speed thus development cannot be ruled out. Storm plans for the Gulf would be prudent.
Disturbance Thirty Three is passing south of the Cape Verde Islands moving west-nor'west at 6 knots. This track will hopefully take this into mid-Atlantic anonymity if it develops.
Stand by for category 4 landfall in the Bahamas.