DORIAN headed for Freeport, Bahamas

Monday 2nd September 2019

Category Five Hurricane DORIAN continues breaking records on its snail-paced, prolonged, destructive on Grand Bahama Island, currently on a direct path for Freeport. Aerial imagery shows a well-defined eye of around a 20 mile diameter. This is at peak now with a hurricane severity index rating of 33 out of a possible 50 points (10 for size and a staggering 23 for intensity). This is an awful storm with wind gusts up to 160 knots over a relatively small tropical storm force windfield of 120 miles. As this interacts with land and undergoes eyewall replacement, ground speed and intensity may decrease a little but the worst excesses of wind are expected to occur after local sunrise.

Destructive winds and tidal surges are then expected to continue for the entire day and through the night. There is still some uncertainty over track thereafter but the general idea would seem to be a curve to the north-east to parallel the eastern seaboard. Obviously, the later the turn, the greater the impact along the coast of Florida and the Carolinas. As this wheels along the coast, as well as wind and storm surge, DORIAN will be a significant rainmaker with inevitable flooding.

Stealth Disturbance Thirty Four has been overshadowed by events over the Bahamas and is now centred in the south central Gulf of Mexico moving very slowly west. This is showing signs of rotation and thunderstorms indicative of rising air which, with warm water below, may have the ability to develop later in the week as it nears the Bay of Campeche and on towards the general direction of the Rio Grande.

Disturbance Thirty Three is a day west of the Cape Verde Islands drifting slowly west-nor'west. This is enjoying favourable development conditions and is tipped to reach tropical storm strength over the next few days , but on this heading, is only likely to become a fish storm.

Disturbance Thirty Five is around 500 miles south east of Bermuda and also showing surface rotation and vertical convection. This too has development prospects but likely to head harmlessly north east.

Another disturbance is on countdown to launch from the African coast and also faces a fertile environment. Early days.

Stand by for prolonged destructive hurricane conditions across the northern Bahamas and uncertain impact for Florida to come.