DORIAN continuing to impact northern Bahamas

Tuesday 3rd September 2019

From west to east,

Disturbance Thirty Four continues to creep west like a thief in the night at little more than walking pace, overshadowed of course by DORIAN. Now centred around 200 miles east-sou'east of the mouth of the Rio Grande, this is showing signs of surface development and convection, which combined with warm water below, will almost certainly produce a tropical storm before making landfall late tomorrow or early Thursday. The greatest threat will be from significant rainfall, mainly to the south of the Rio Grande as things stand, but as a storm will be short-lived.

The eye of Category Three DORIAN is almost clear of Grand Bahama Island now, hopefully bringing this painfully slow and lethal trek across the island to an end as it drifts north-east at between 3-5 knots. If there is any good news at all for the people on the ground (albeit only marginal) is that intensity has fallen inversely proportional to size although this still being described as an ‘extremely dangerous' hurricane. Unfortunately, this will continue to produce strong winds, dangerous storm surges, torrential rainfall and flooding over the northern Bahamas. Currently at a hurricane severity index rating of 22 out of 50 points (11 for both size and intensity), this is still producing winds gusting 130 knots with a tropical storm intensity windfield radius of 150 miles. A kick start and turn to the north is expected tomorrow evening, followed by a turn to the north-nor'east on Thursday. On this track, DORIAN will track dangerously close to the Florida east coast, with some potential for strengthening again to a hurricane severity index rating of 26 (18 size, 8 intensity) and similarly very near to the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Wednesday and Thursday.

Disturbance Thirty Five has peeled away from the westerly track and is now heading north-east. Currently centred around 200 miles south of Bermuda, this is also showing rotation and thunderstorm activity, and may yet develop but will head harmlessly seaward without disturbing anyone ashore.

Disturbance Thirty Three is now centred about a day and a half north west of the Cape Verde Islands, drifting slowly northwest. This is also showing signs of organisation, and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form over the next few days but likely to be well aware from any land areas.

Stand by for another day of severe conditions across the northern Bahamas, hopefully for the last day.

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