DORIAN shadowing eastern seaboard, GABRIELLE & FERNAND seaborne

Wednesday 4th September 2019

Stealth Disturbance Thirty Four finally showed its hand and developed into Tropical Storm FERNAND, which is now centred around 150 miles south-sou'east of the Rio Grande and is moving west-nor'west at 4 knots. Winds gusting 55 knots have been recorded and a slight intensification is expected before landfall in north-eastern Mexico tonight. This has had time to pick up a substantial amount of water which will present a flooding risk across a wide area with the worst excesses close south of the Rio Grande.

Category 2 Hurricane DORIAN is now well clear of the Bahamas having taken a tragic toll and is now north-nor'west bound at about 6 knots centred around 80 miles east of Daytona Beach. Wind speeds have reduced substantially but still gusting over 100 knots. Aerial images show the predominant squall bands radiating west across the coast of Florida, dumping heavy rainfall across the coastal region. DORIAN will turn towards the north this evening, followed by a turn north-east tomorrow. On this track, the eye of DORIAN will pass dangerously close to the Florida east coast and Georgia coast through the coming night. Some weakening is on the cards but this will remain a powerful hurricane and won't be good news for coastal Georgia and South Carolina over the next day or so.

Disturbance Thirty Five is passing close to the east of Bermuda with some thunderstorm activity and limited rotation but has not taken advantage of the development window in the area yet. This is now expected to track towards the north-east, harmlessly seaward. Tropical Storm GABRIELLE is now around 600 miles west-nor'west of the Cape Verde Islands moving north-west at 9 knots. This looks set to strengthen but is expected to remain well clear of land.

A disturbance is forming just off the African coast where conditions look to be favourable for development. Early days, but development is not out of the question.

Stand by for strong tropical storm conditions, hurricane force at times, along south-eastern seaboard.