Hurricane DORIAN beginning destructive pass along the coast of South Carolina
Thursday 5th September 2019 1000z
Tropical storm FERNAND made land yesterday around 1500 CDT/2000z crossing the Laguna Madre around 150 miles south of the Rio Grande. At the time of landfall, this had a tropical storm windfield of just 40 miles, and wind speeds dropped quickly after beaching. There will be some residual rainfall with some areas of Mexico seeing up 12 inches of rain and some accumulations in south Texas of 2-3 inches. Done and dusted.
Category Three Hurricane DORIAN wavered a little overnight during eyewall replacement but is back on mission now as a very dangerous hurricane currently just 65 miles south-sou'east of Charleston, South Carolina, headed a tad east of due north at 8 knots. This is at peak now with a hurricane severity index rating of 30 out of 50 (19 for size and 11 for intensity). Overnight restructuring has produced a very well-defined eye of around a 25 mile radius and a much broader windfield. Hurricane force winds radiate from the nominal centre in bands of up to 70 miles. Simple maths tells me Charleston is experiencing them now. Unfortunately for the eastern seaboard, aerial imagery shows the worst of muck and murk to the west of the centre. DORIAN is expected to turn slightly more towards the north east but this is unlikely to spare the coast of South and North Carolina from destructive hurricane force winds, currently 100 knots gusting 120 and rainfall of up to 14 inches in places from Charleston to the Outer Banks, which will take the brunt of winds and storm surge generated by the eye wall. Confidence is fairly high that this will turn ashore again and have a third bite at Atlantic Canada over the coming weekend. We'll all be glad to see the back of DORIAN.
Disturbance Thirty Five is now centred around 280 miles due east of Bermuda headed nicely seaward. Conditions for development are deteriorating and this should quietly dissipate over the next couple of days.
Tropical Storm GABRIELLE is now located well to the northwest of the Cape Verde Islands, centred over 1,100 miles south-sou'west of the Azores headed north-west at 7 knots. Environmental conditions are ripe for development and GABRIELLE is expected to reach hurricane intensity tomorrow but will remain clear of land, only upsetting fish and sailors.
Disturbance Thirty Six is forming off the African coast, a stone's throw west of The Gambia. Conditions look to become favourable for development during the Atlantic crossing as it tracks towards the west. Early days.
Stand by for hurricane conditions along the coast of North and South Carolina with destructive winds, heavy storm surge, and biblical amounts of rainfall.