DORIAN to take third bite at Atlantic Canada

Saturday 7th September 2019

From west to east,

Hurricane DORIAN is now centred around 150 miles east-sou'east of Cape Cod galloping north-east at a brisk 25 knots, producing winds of up to 105 knots in gusts. As anticipated, this restructured after leaving the south eastern seaboard and has now widenend but lost some intensity. The current hurricane severity index (HSI) rating is 17 out of 50 (10 for size and 7 for intensity). This is now at closest point of approach to New England and Cape Cod. With a current tropical storm force windfield radius of 220 miles, there will inevitably be some impact ashore albeit peripheral. DORIAN will move quickly to the northeast toward Nova Scotia today and undergo further transition into a much larger extratropical storm system and perhaps deepen slightly. This will reach an expected HSI of 22 out of a possible 50 points (14 size for size and 8 for intensity)resulting in a very large area of Atlantic Canada experiencing strong tropical storm-force or hurricane-force winds. Upper level shear has started nibbling at the convection column in the last few hours which is may be a blessing.

Disturbance Thirty Seven is now centred around 280 miles is northeast of the northern Leeward Islands moving to the west-nor'west at 8 knots. Conditions may be marginally favourable for development next week as the system tracks towards the west-nor'west. Watch needed.

Tropical storm GABRIELLE is now centred 990 miles west-sou'west of the Azores headed north west at 17 knots, still producing winds of around 45 knots. This will turn north then north east in the next couple of days. After that is anyone's guess but will remain a fish storm only.

Disturbance Thirty Six is now approximately two days west of the Cape Verde Islands tracking west at around 12 knots with early signs of both rotation and convection. All lights ahead are green and this will also need a weather eye on it.

Stand by for a blow across Atlantic Canada.

 

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