Accelerating GABRIELLE to make minimal impression on Irish coast
Tuesday 10th September 2019
Disturbance Thirty Seven is another stealth system that has crept up on us, overshadowed by the trail of DORIAN to the north. Now heading west at 10 knots about 120 miles north of Hispaniola, convection and surface organisation have improved over the past 24 hours causing increased shower and thunderstorm activity. This will be a rainmaker as it approaches the Bahamas towards Friday, then will cross the Florida peninsula over the weekend and enter the north eastern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday or Monday where there is some speculation concerning favourable development conditions. Weather watch needed.
Disturbance Thirty Six is 650 miles north-nor ‘east of the mouth of the Amazon headed a tad north of west at 10 knots. This is also showing signs of circulation and marine observers are reporting line squalls with some heavy shower and thunderstorm activity. A glimmer of hope awaits with some lusty upper-level wind shear ahead which could see this off before it reaches the Caribbean, if we are lucky.
Tropical Storm GABRIELLE is now centred around 750 miles west-nor ‘west of the Azores, beginning to accelerate to the north-east. This final track normally breaks down the convection cycle fairly quickly and wind speeds are already down to only just marginally tropical storm strength. This will become extratropical in the next few hours and continue weakening. This is expected to reach Ireland by Thursday with winds of up to 30 knots. For those not familiar with the rugged wilds of the west coast of Ireland, 30 knot winds are what locals would describe as ‘calm'.
Disturbance Thirty Eight has not moved far from the Africa coast, taking time to absorb moisture and form a clearly defined circulation profile before it gets into gear and heads west. This is the long-term observer's daily pin-up with positive development conditions ahead and green lights all the way to the Leeward Islands. Weather watch needed here too.