Weather watch needed on disturbance headed for Gulf of Mexico
Wednesday 11th September 2019
Disturbance Thirty Seven is centred about 80 miles southeast of Grand Bahama Island moving to the west-nor ‘west at 10 knots. There are signs of surface rotation and early convection producing shower and thunderstorm activity across the area, but high upper level shear may yet have a say in this. Nonetheless, this will enhance shower and thunderstorms over the Bahamas from now until Friday night. By Saturday, this is expected to track across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico where environmental conditions are expected to be moderately favourable. Depending on how much oomph is left after crossing the peninsula, the system may develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm with a long-term track expected into the Florida panhandle or into eastern Louisiana on Sunday or Monday. Watch needed.
Disturbance Thirty Eight is centred 500 miles north of the mouth of the Amazon moving slowly west. This is not well organised at all and not expected to develop this side of the Lesser Antilles, ETA Monday. Thereafter, conditions may turn more favourable as this tracks towards Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the southern Bahamas.
Disturbance Thirty Six is now about a day west of the African coast, weakening as it tracks west-sou'west in unfavourable conditions. The chances of this seeing the Lesser Antilles are fairly remote.